Energy future outlook: system scenarios for electricity supply in Belgium

Energy scenarios are essential to formulate measures aimed at realizing the transition to a more sustainable energy supply. EnergyVille develops optimization and simulation models to substantiate these scenarios by demonstrating their potential, costs and environmental impact.  EnergyVille has published various studies that provide an outlook on the Belgian electricity supply in 2030 and 2050. For this purpose, we built further on the insights of the various stakeholders. These studies provide insight into a number of specific energy scenarios for Belgium, and thus try, without a specific preference for certain technologies, to provide an answer to the question what our electricity supply could possibly look like in 2030 and beyond and what effect this has on the energy production and costs of this electrical energy system. The strength of the methodology used is that the scenarios are calculated aiming at the lowest total system cost to meet the energy demand in all sectors.

The studies are based on the insights of various stakeholders. For example, the first study published in 2017 was developed on behalf of Febeliec. This study included a central scenario with a nuclear phase-out by 2025, a scenario with low and high gas prices, limited imports, and an extension of 2GW of nuclear power over 10 years.

In 2018, at the request of Greenpeace, BBL and IEW, the study was expanded with an outlook on 2040 with a nuclear phase-out by 2025 and an extension of 2GW of nuclear energy over 10 years until 2035.

The latest study, published in 2020, was developed in collaboration with ENGIE, who were responsible for the critical review of the assumptions and scenarios. In this study, two long-term paths were elaborated (one with current renewable ambitions and one with high renewable ambitions). In each of the 2 paths, a central scenario was developed in which the planned nuclear phase-out in Belgium was modelled. In addition, 2 scenarios with the option of investing in extending the operation of 2 nuclear power stations (2 GW) by 10 or 20 years were added.

The questions addressed in the studies above:

• What will our electricity production look like in 2030 and beyond, taking into account the broad framework of renewable and climate ambitions in the most cost-optimal way?
• How does the extension of 2 nuclear power plants by 10 or 20 years affect the further Belgian electricity supply until 2050?
• What is the impact of evolutions and decisions in neighboring countries on the Belgian electricity system?
• What role does each technology play in the scenarios and what is the impact on the CO2 emissions and costs of the electricity system?

The TIMES model was used for the elaboration of the studies. This is a techno-economic model that is used worldwide and for which the software is developed within the International Energy Agency (IEA) by the ETSAP Technology Collaboration Programme. EnergyVille develops the TIMES BE model for the global Belgian energy system, including all production and demand sectors. The model calculates different scenarios based on the evolution of technical and economic parameters and looks for the most cost-efficient solution to meet the demand for energy services. The model does not structurally take the investor's perspective into account. There is no focus on how the investments can be financed, i.e. existing subsidies for the various technologies are not included in the model. Green energy certificates and capacity fees (CRM) are therefore out of scope. After all, this is a form of financing that is borne by society.

Feel free to click through to the following web pages:

• Update ‘Energy Transition in Belgium: choices and costs’ with ENGIE (2020)
• Update ‘Energy Transition in Belgium: choices and costs’ with Greenpeace, BBL and IEW (2018)
• Energy Transition in Belgium: choices and costs’ besteld with Febeliec (2017)